Algiers (OR) – Once in 1956, a student of Algiers University Abdelaziz Bouteflika led the protests of his fellow students against the colonial dictatorship of France in his country. Today the new generation of students and their professors fight against Bouteflika and his ring generals’ dictatorship. The protests are gaining momentum engulfing the land in strict accordance with the Arab Spring scenario, as happened earlier in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Syria.
The Algerian government has offered a compromise: Bouteflika runs for the presidency now for the last time as a symbol of stability with his cadence limited for one year only. Everybody calms down, and later other elections are held and the national priorities are chosen without pressure from barricades and Molotov’s. Though it seems that the funds have already been disbursed between the captains of the future uprising, so the show must go on. Radicalism and escalation are on the rise, waiting for external support from the EU. Yes, we know that Europe always relies on democracy and freedom!
What are the moves that the EU is to make to please the opposition and its sponsors? What steps should take the EU leaders, France and Germany? No need of a crystal ball here. The first move proscribed by the Arab Spring scenario is to demand that Bouteflika is banned from the elections. In case the government rejects, the second move is to recognize the opposition as the only legitimate actor in Algeria. Any committee, any form of provisional government will do, or even a group of individuals subscribing to “a platform for democracy”. The third step of the road map is to freeze the Algerian assets in the EU financial institutions, earthquake or any other emergency notwithstanding. Finally, in case the government does not surrender, the plans are to strike the military and infrastructure targets more than once, with the operation code name: “Bomb Algeria into democracy”.
These EU moves will surely produce euphoria from the feeling that democracy was directly and resolutely supported. Even if that feeling evaporates soon. What will be the final result of the efforts? It will not take months when the radical Islamic groups come to power, starting the civil war in Algeria. The Middle East is the place producing the greater atrocities the more radical Islamists are striving for power. And never forget: Islamic combatants are never prone to enter coalition governments or negotiate a compromise. They crave for all the power, and for the absolute power only.
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Therefore, when the feeling of euphoria produced by the victory over another Arab dictator is gone, France and Germany and other responsible EU members will get two resulting “bonuses”. The first of the outcomes will hit the economy: no more low-cost gas from Algeria. Because the country in a state of civil war exports no gas at all. The resulting US liquid gas monopolistic prices will stifle European competitiveness and will raise the cost of living. The EU production costs will make European production to lose even the domestic market.
The second outcome will hit social and political stability. Estimated 7 million of refugees from Algeria in 2019 only will flood France and Italy, reaching Germany and elsewhere. These people will flee from the economic chaos, the atrocities of the civil war and radical Islam dictatorship in Algeria. The EU will experience a profound social shock. And some governments which might try to play a game of sovereignty will get a new edition of Gilets Jaunes accompanied by multiple acts of terror by infiltrating Islamic militants.
A simple problem to solve here: who stakes with such an outcome? A plausible solution comes easily, sure they are the Islamic radicals. The most dedicated and resolute, those of them who crave to establish an Islamic emirate in Algeria. But do they control the expedient resources for such a plan to come true? It was Bouteflika supported by the military and the civil society in Algeria to crush radical Islam and subversive militants during the first phase of the Arab Spring. Therefore the radical Islam in Algeria is in the lack of all the resources, they need funds, they need troops, they need guns and they need guidance. The left-over enclaves of Islamic State in Syria, with some hundreds of veteran troops protected by the US special troops, are waiting for the green light to fly to Algeria.
All the resources for the civil war the Islamic radicals get from the US. What is the reason for the US to sponsor another Islamic State now in Algeria? The answer is business, only business and nothing personal. Mr.Trump needs a weak, divided, subordinated Europe. A Europe whose sovereignty is placed in the hands of the US. It is the EU to become the milking cow yielding the resources to make America great again before the next elections of the US president.
Where else in the world Mr. Trump can milk out another hundreds of billion dollars? The trade war with China once staged with such a bravado brought nothing. Russia holds on, capitulation is not signed. India and Pakistan came to a truce. The Persian Gulf failed to get detonated indirectly, Qatar stood against Saudi attacks and still competes with American liquid gas on the EU market. Even Maduro of Venezuela would not surrender. What is left over for Mr. Trump appetites: Europe.
Here in Algeria, all things seem so happy to combine for the US plans. Bouteflika being a dictator in a wheelchair, is too feeble for resistance. The leading forces for democracy seem the students, burgers and other very progressive elements. Therefore Algeria could easily and legitimately become a target, cutting its supply of the cheap gas for the EU. And all this could be accomplished by the hands of manipulated Europe. According to the blueprints of the Arab Spring, fighting for democracy clears the place for the militant terrorists to come to power. And it paves the way for the millions of refugees to flood the EU.
One final issue remains. Will such a scenario contribute to the EU future stability? Does Europe need self-determination and sovereign decision making? It will be in Algeria where France and Germany are to make their choice. Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel are to vindicate that their countries will stay independent and sovereign.
This post originally ran on Oriental Review. Featured photo: Flickr, OMAR-MALO
Independent Moscow-based Internet journal focusing on the past, present and future political and security issues in Eurasia and beyond, working for you since 2010.